A dedicated read on the UFC Baku prelims — five fights, two Azerbaijani prospects, one of the best 185-pound submission artists on the planet, and the night's quietest +EV plays. Prelims open at 12:00 PM ET on ESPN+.
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Why prelims matter for value bettors
Prelim lines move less, sharp money arrives later, and the data sample on regional fighters is thinner — which is exactly where the best prices on a UFC card usually live. Two of our four highest-confidence plays for UFC Baku are on the prelim slate: Ruziboev to win inside the distance and Sadykhov by stoppage. Build tickets accordingly.
Nursulton Ruziboev vs Andrey Pulyaev · Middleweight
Nursulton Ruziboev opens the show as one of the most experienced fighters on the card — 36-9-2 with a finishing rate north of 80%. Andrey Pulyaev is the late-notice replacement, an Akhmat MMA wrestler with a real takedown game but four inches and a UFC of experience to give up. The path for Pulyaev is to weather an early round, find the body lock, and grind 15. The path for Ruziboev is everything else: pump the jab, sprawl the first shot, snatch a guillotine off the second. We are picking the submission in round two and not feeling brave about it.
The card's quietest sleeper. Bekzat Almakhan is a Kazakh 135-pounder with the kind of pressure-striking that doesn't translate to highlight reels but does translate to scorecards. Jean Matsumoto enters 17-2 with one UFC win, a wrestling-first game, and a chin that has held up against everyone the regional Brazilian scene has thrown at him. This is a 15-minute fight that ends on a 29-28 card. Take the Brazilian and a small under on the totals — or stay away and just enjoy three rounds of layered grappling.
Daniel Donchenko vs Andreas Gustafsson · Welterweight
Welterweight pressure. Daniel Donchenko is forward all night with heavy hands and a body-shot specialty that has produced two professional finishes. Andreas Gustafsson is the bigger, longer Swede who needs the cage center and a kicking range to operate. The Donchenko path is simple — close, body, repeat — and we think it produces a round-three TKO. Live underdog energy exists if Gustafsson hits a perfect knee on the entry, but he has not shown that move on tape and Donchenko's defensive head movement during entries has been clean.
Welcome to Azerbaijan. Nazim Sadykhov is the second of three Azerbaijani names on this card and the prelim main event for the home crowd. A southpaw with a real left hand and a sneaky submission game, he draws Matheus Camilo — a Brazilian who came up at Nova União with a brawler's resume and a willingness to stand and trade. The crowd factor is enormous here. Expect Sadykhov to come out hot, drop Camilo with the straight left inside two rounds, and finish with ground-and-pound to the loudest Baku roar of the night.
The card opens with the third Azerbaijani — UFC debutant Farman Hasanov, 4-0 and 26 years old, in his hometown. Eric Nolan is the perfect debut opponent: tough enough to give Hasanov a real test, not dangerous enough to derail the homecoming. Expect a measured Hasanov game plan — work the jab, throw the leg kick, mix in a takedown when openings appear — and a 30-27 decision that introduces him to the UFC audience exactly the way the matchmakers want.
Pick: Farman Hasanov by Decision, round 3.
Sleeper pick of the night
Nazim Sadykhov inside the distance. Home crowd, southpaw advantage against a wide-open Brazilian, and one of the cleanest left hands in the lightweight prospect pool. If he is plus-money on method, you cash a ticket.